Block Inc.’s 3yr Review and Growth Outlook Through 2028

Block Inc.’s Three-Year Performance Review and Future Growth Outlook Through 2028

By Jade Corporate Advisors Pvt. Ltd.

Over the past decade, Block Inc. (formerly known as Square) has transformed from a small fintech payments firm into a broad digital ecosystem. This article reviews recent performance and explores growth projections through 2028.

Over the past decade, Block Inc. (formerly known as Square) has transformed itself from a small fintech payments company into a broad digital ecosystem that spans point-of-sale systems, peer-to-peer payments, Bitcoin services, small-business tools, lending, and most recently, the expanding Cash App universe. While the company has experienced cycles of strong growth, strategic shifts, and a changing macroeconomic environment, the last three years have marked one of the most important transition periods in Block’s history.

At its recent Investor Day, Block revealed a bold new outlook:

• Annual gross profit growth expected in the mid-teens through 2028
• Adjusted operating income projected to grow roughly 30% per year
• A $5 billion expansion of its share repurchase program, in addition to $1.1 billion already authorized
• The return of CEO Jack Dorsey to the public spotlight, outlining a sharper, more disciplined strategic path

Together, these updates signal a company looking to redefine itself after several years of volatility and mounting investor pressure. The following analysis explores Block’s performance over the past three years, the key drivers of its recovery, and what investors can expect from its future growth trajectory through 2028.

Block’s Performance (2022–2024): A Period of Rebalancing and Reinvention

The past three years have not been easy for Block. Coming out of the pandemic, the company saw incredible highs—Cash App usage surged, Bitcoin trading volumes spiked, and Seller ecosystem growth accelerated as small businesses reopened. But as inflation, rising interest rates, and weakening discretionary spending hit consumers, Block faced significant turbulence.

2022: A Year of Post-Pandemic Surge and Volatility

• Cash App continued to grow its user base, surpassing 50 million monthly transacting users.
• Seller ecosystem revenue rose as small businesses fully reopened and digital payments kept expanding.
• Bitcoin revenue was highly volatile, falling sharply as crypto markets entered a downturn, though gross profit impact was minimal.
• Higher operating expenses and heavy investments in product development marked the year.
• Increasing competitive pressure and concerns about the Afterpay acquisition.

Block still posted gross profit growth in the mid-teens, but profitability lagged as the company prioritized scale.

2023: Cost Discipline, Stabilization, and Return to Operating Leverage

• Shift from aggressive expansion to operational efficiency, with slowed hiring and reduced discretionary spending.
• Reorganization under clearer leadership and prioritization of high-ROI product lines.
• Gross profit accelerated, operating expenses leveled out.
• Cash App monetization improved, especially with Cash Card and direct deposit features.
• Seller business benefited from stronger blended take rates and ecosystem stickiness.

By late 2023, Block’s financial foundation looked significantly more stable.

2024: A Return to Shareholder-Focused Strategy

• Meaningful margin expansion and double-digit gross profit growth.
• Growing contribution from high-margin Cash App services and SMB tools.
• Early integration success of Afterpay within Cash App and Seller ecosystems.
• Announcement of a massive $5 billion share repurchase program expansion, complementing $1.1 billion unused authorization.

This signals confidence in strengthening earnings per share, reducing dilution, and demonstrating long-term cash flow growth.

The Return of Jack Dorsey: Renewed Leadership and Vision

Jack Dorsey’s reappearance at the Investor Day highlighted his renewed commitment to guiding Block’s long-term vision with more hands-on operational focus and accountability. He emphasized scaling the business sustainably and concentrating resources on highest-performing ecosystems.

Future Growth Projection Through 2028

1. Gross Profit Growth in the Mid-Teens (Annual)
   Driven by Cash App monetization, Seller ecosystem adoption among mid-to-large businesses, Afterpay integration, subscription growth, and international expansion.
2. Adjusted Operating Income Growth of ~30% Per Year
   Focus on margin expansion, operating leverage, controlled spending, and efficiency.
3. Massive Share Repurchase Program
   $5 billion buyback authorization supporting earnings per share and signaling management confidence.
4. Growth Drivers by Ecosystem
   Cash App’s user monetization, Seller software adoption, Afterpay’s integration and credit product expansion.

Risks and Challenges Ahead

• Slower consumer spending in a high-interest rate environment.
• Competition from PayPal, Shopify, Apple, and traditional banks.
• Volatility in Bitcoin-related revenue.
• Integration and execution risks with Afterpay.
• Regulatory pressures on digital payments and lending markets.

Conclusion: A New Era of Disciplined Growth

Block’s recent transformation reflects a journey from rapid expansion to operational discipline, ultimately aligning strategy to profitability and shareholder value. With Jack Dorsey’s renewed leadership, the company is poised for sustained mid-teens gross profit growth and robust adjusted operating income through 2028, supported by a large share repurchase program and scalable operating model.